Last night, Politico reported that it had obtained a draft opinion concerning the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. For those who don’t know, Roe v. Wade is the decision that established the constitutional right to an abortion. The leaked draft opinion suggests that the U.S. Supreme Court is headed in the direction to overturn the decision…

Court deliberations have leaked before but the release of a draft opinion is very unprecedented.

About two months after the oral arguments is when the draft has been rumored to be circulated. The leaked draft has all the hallmarks of being accurate and the majority of justices have supported the ruling.

"Roe was egregiously wrong from the start. We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled."

Associate Justice Samuel Alito said in the draft.

The leak does not mean that abortion is illegal in the United States. Two months down the road is when the expected time frame of release was for the decision. Activists in favor of the freedom of abortion have been expecting this lean in the court decision.

“I think the draft is a wake-up call. The end of abortion access for many Americans is not hypothetical. A majority of the Supreme Court has cast their votes against a longstanding constitutional right to autonomy and self-determination.”

Elizabeth Stepper, a University of Texas law professor, said about the leak.

If the SCOTUS overturns Roe v. Wade, the decision would be left to individual state laws. This means that states will be able to ban abortion within their state lines with no national government interference. Half the states in the country have laws that are literally awaiting this decision. Nearly 16 states and DC have passed laws that protect abortion rights if Roe v. Wade is overturned.

According to Amelia Bonow, the founder of the Seattle-based national abortion access group “Shout Your Abortion,” this is going to be an earthquake in American life. This comes with the knowledge of a principle known as “stare decisis,” which is a Latin phrase for “to stand by things decided.” So, the Supreme court tends not to overrule a past decision but this isn’t a binding requirement and the court has changed rulings before even if it was rarely done.

A ruling in which the court reversed was the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education ruling which eliminated an 1896 ruling to legalize segregation under the “separate but equal” belief. The right has targeted Roe for being overturned and former President Trump appointed three conservative justices to the bench based on their willingness to revisit the already made decision.

There are no clear next steps. The only advice and following we can give is to just wait. The ruling is about a two-month project for this specific case and there are still glimpses of the possibility that the court could rule differently than the draft opinion.

"In response to the Politico article claiming to have a copy of the initial draft of the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson, National Right to Life agrees with the statement of Mississippi Attorney General Lynn Fitch who said, 'We will let the Supreme Court speak for itself and wait for the Court’s official opinion.'"

The anti-abortion rights group National Right to Life said

Many people are worried that the draft decision could eventually lead the Supreme Court to overturn other civil rights protections. David Lane, a civil rights attorney, said the draft decision could prompt the creation of a new "Underground Railroad" where people have to travel across state lines to exercise civil rights they once enjoyed nationally.

To the best of my knowledge, it is unprecedented for a draft decision to be leaked to the press, and it is allegedly common for the final decision to drastically change between drafts. Will this press leak influence the final court decision? And if the decision remains the same, what will Democrats and Republicans do going forward for the 2022 midterms, and for the broader trajectory of the country?

The final opinion has not been released and votes and language can change before opinions are formally released. But the question raised is why would you wait and take a chance for something to go from firing up a group of voters to maybe nothing happening to the statute? And even then it's now May and everything I've read says late June...why waste a good month of Summer?

However, as I have my opinions and others have there’s, if overturned it is a massive mistake. The only insight I could provide is to follow the 48hr rule and not take any of it to heart or “as is” until that 48hrs is up.

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