Does SCOTUS decision impact November 2022?
As many are aware, President Biden is not doing very well in the approval polls. Currently, his approval with Americans is somewhere within the low 30s. No good for a President looking for reelection and no good for the party looking to maintain control during midterms. There has also been a brief discussion surrounding some sort of “red wave” coming just in time for the midterms.
However, yesterday gave all Democrats a glimpse of hope as Senators such as Elizabeth Warren doesn’t need to continue her begging of her colleagues to do better. Roe v. Wade being overturned was completely bad timing for Republicans. Democrats are in the driver's seat right now to use this as a rallying cry to get to the polls and vote blue. Even Nancy Pelosi has already started a video on CSPAN.
So for many, the curiosity is if Roe v. Wade will impact the midterms in November. To clear that curiosity up - yes, it will impact the midterms more than most people expect. We have no precedent of something like this happening in recent history, rights that everyone was familiar with being stripped away, depending just on where you live. It’s no small thing, it’s not minuscule, and while it may contain some short-term gain in this for the right, I cannot imagine this being something beneficial to the Republican party long-term.
I think this is something that actually causes the Republicans to now lose the suburbs almost permanently. That in itself is a bad sign that will come to roost in the midterms, but for sure by 2026 (if we consider the latest). If Trump was right about anything (surprisingly enough) it’s his skepticism over overturning Roe being good for Republicans in suburban districts.
Losing the "socially liberal or moderate but I vote based on my taxes and the economy so I vote for fiscal conservatives" crowd for good over social issues is going to be a long-term problem for Republicans.
Looking at the midterms and the issues so much concerned with them, I certainly think it will have a giant effect. The midterms were nearly set in stone to be a wave election for Republicans but will ultimately turn it into a competitive and close election. Roe and the implications following it will galvanize voters. There are a lot of Republican candidates who are just brutally terrible and they also lean very much on social conservatism, especially in the Senate. This group missing out now will undoubtedly give Democrats a boost.
Will it be enough overall to win both chambers? Well, I am confident enough in the Senate at least remaining in Democratic hands, perhaps even gaining some seats. One very overlooked advantage is the Democratic advantage of running strong candidates in two of their three key defensive races. Warnock in Georgia is facing an idiot of a candidate in Herschel Walker will help. Kelly in Arizona is likely to face a pro-Trump/pro-MAGA candidate in Blake Masters. In the 2020 race, being pro-Trump hurt a lot and Arizona independents have a dislike for Trump and Trump-like beliefs that we don’t necessarily see anywhere else besides maybe Georgia.
Nevada becomes a questionable conversation since I don’t really think Cortez-Mastro is a strong candidate. However, Nevada is a heavily pro-choice state, so this will be a boost based off of civil rights.
Outside of the mentioned states, I genuinely believe Democrats have a chance at winning two of the following seats currently held by Republicans:
Fetterman in Pennsylvania is a very strong candidate as he continues to resonate with every voter. Dr. Oz is genuinely just a shit show in himself who is now trying - and failing - to rebrand himself as a moderate after openly accepting a Trump endorsement in the primaries. Fetterman will win this in a clear margin.
Ron Johnson in Wisconsin is way too far to the right for a Senator in what is a purple state in statewide elections. We can even go as far as to couple that with strong Democratic candidates in the primary and there’s a great chance Democrats scoop up Wisconsin.
Beasly in North Carolina is another solid candidate and the state itself has consistently been close over the last few cycles. However, as mentioned in his strong candidacy, Beasly is also polling very strongly.
I don’t think Tim Ryan wins Ohio, but he does have a chance and that chance is way more than anyone is expecting against a volatile candidate who isn’t going to get much if any, moderate support. Ohio is also too red at this point…
In Missouri, if Republicans nominate Greitens, it closes the deal for Democrats.
Democrats have a statistically great chance to hold Senate and win 50-52 seats while doing so. They’ll most definitely keep Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada all while winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If the Democrats do get the 52 seats and also retain the House, then there will be serious discussions over killing the filibuster to pass an abortion rights bill that is more than a compromise "15 weeks floor ban for any state" type bill.
If the Democrats do lose the House, there is the chance that they will be able to continuously nominate judges. Who knows if there is an opening that will open up on the Supreme Court before Biden exits office.
I mentioned the House, and honestly, I am not as confident about the House. I don’t think Democrats will get blown out too bad though. Gerrymandering will be a factor, and while it did not go as bad for Democrats as many expected, I’m not sure it will help Democrats to keep the House. It can and most likely will help limit the losses and it will aid in retaining tight seats. This will only happen to the point where Republicans will have a slim majority.
All in all, abortion will most likely - nearly definitely - impact the elections more than most people seem to think and expect. We havem’t had anything of this magnitude and scenario in previous elections. You cannot quantify through previous trends a right so familiar to women today being taken away in many states with the justified fear of Republicans bringing nationwide bans if they get a simple majority. Tie in the fact that Trump and many of his GOP groupies are being investigated for the January 6th Riots and other slips from the Republican party, it seems as if Democrats are not being examined thoroughly for the upcoming midterms.
Of course, it will b up to the Democrats to continue pushing the messaging and whatever else, but I think voters will be aware come November nonetheless. Just saying “vote” will not be the message of inspiration, but the Democrats can say something such as "vote and if you give us a majority, will codify abortion protections and prioritize your right to choose. But it will only work if you give us a majority.” Whichever way, we will see…