The Amish Population Doubles every 22 Years. In a Century, many Midwestern States can see Amish Populations accounting for 10% of the state Population
Think Piece/Open Discussion
The Amish are a very well-known minority group within the United States due to their conspicuously separate lifestyle. They avoid plenty of technological advances and much more. The Amish form endogamous, secluded communities, which because of their Anabaptist style faith, generally do not seek to perform in the modern and evergrowing society we see today.
However, they’ve won multiple Supreme Court cases that have worked to secure their community rights according to faith. One such case is one that protects them from not having to provide secondary education to their children. They’re also exempt from participating in the Social Security System.
Amish communities do not use birth control and the larger families have five or more children which tends to be the cultural norm. With that being said, data shows that the Amish population doubles nearly every 22 years. A small community, for most of its existence, now counts 80,000+ in Ohio alone. Even as it is 0.7% of the state’s population, the growth is undeniably impressive.
Even if it is ridiculous to look out 100 years from now, in that time, the Amish community can continue its trend of birth rates, it would end up making up a substantial minority of the population of states such as Ohio, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and even Indiana. How would the regions even deal with the emergence of a new(er) minority group, especially one that has such distinctive customs?
Multiple arguments arise such as all Amish kids don’t stay Amish. For this, deciding the groups’ future size based on birth rate would be inaccurate. Also, as I mentioned, the outlook for 100 years is relatively absurd considering within the United States alone, we cannot predict what the next 5 years would be like.
However, what if the Amish retention in children is something like 90%? If the retention rate remains stable and high for generations, it seems to be a clear indicator that it will remain due to Amish life, in general, not changing. It is true to say we will never know the future, but this seems to be a specific case in which it is the safest of many predictions you can make. Even if the retention rate were to drastically change, it still remains difficult to think that changing factors would bring about that specific change.