The Democratic Party should not be Counted out for a Midterm Victory
Opinion Piece/Open Discussion
According to nearly anybody, you will ever speak to concerning the upcoming midterms and the 2024 election, President Biden will be done before the midterms. In terms of the midterms, anybody speaking of them claim they will be an impending nightmare, an ominous event, or even a wipeout. It really just depends which headlines you read but the overall consensus throughout the media is that the Democrats are completely screwed for November.
Don’t get me wrong - there are absolutely very good reasons as to why the Democratic voters should be concerned. Just look at Biden’s approval rating, it hit an all-time low in the last week. Inflation continues to be the biggest issue on the mind of Americans and in general, Americans feel the country is on the wrong track. To be more specific, 88% of Americans are claiming we are headed off the rails as well as 26% of Democrats report they don’t even want Biden to be the nominee for the 2024 presidential election.
It is historically proven that the president’s party typically performs poorly during the midterms. To add this year adding to that historical context, Republicans have been favored on the generic ballot for months now. However, why hasn’t anybody thought about the actuality that the Democrats might pull a midterm victory off? For months now, the only backing of the whole idea that the Democrats are screwed is the generic congressional ballot. ABC-Washington Post’s survey found the GOP holding a 10 percentage point lead. Using this data, the Dems would out of the midterms losing more than 50 seats.
We are all missing the big picture though: In a post-Roe world, the Democrats are leading these polls…
The NYT and Siena College have conducted polling as well as Politico-Consult. There have been 11 polls of the generic congressional ballot since Roe v. Wade ended and according to the data collected through these polls, if the elections were held today, the Democrats would only lose seven House seats. I understand this is still enough for the Republicans to regain control of the House, however it is enough proof to say that the supposed “Red Wave” does not exist and the chances of it ever existing is something to be questioned.
Let’s look at gas prices because if you log into Facebook, all you see are boomers complaining about paying $5+ per gallon. However, within the last four weeks, gas prices have been easing. From a month ago, the price of gas is down $0.40/gal. In total, consumers are now spending nearly $150 Million less on gas today than they were just last month. If prices continue to decline as they have been, come mid-August, prices will be under $4.00/gal. So please, calm down with these arguments…
Another thing to consider is that it really seems as if President Biden’s popularity is something that DOES NOT correlate with the popularity of other Democratic nominees throughout the country pushing for midterm victories. Look no further than Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania for proof where the candidates for the Dems are outperforming Biden by MASSIVE margins.
Georgia: Raphael Warnock (D) holds a 3% advantage over Herschel Walker (R)
Ohio: Tim Ryan (D) is maintaining a 9% edge over J.D. Vance (R)
Pennsylvania: John Fetterman is also holding a 9% advantage over his opponent Mehmet Oz. This is more impressive as John Fetterman has been off of the campaign trail for nearly a whole month as he recovers from a stroke.
In those three states specifically, Biden is currently drowning in the polls.
Also, the fire lit under the Democrat’s ass is due to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Let’s be honest, the Republicans are literally running around like headless chickens attempting to ease the consequences of the overturning they once celebrated just three weeks ago. Situations like the 10-year-old from Ohio who is a rape victim and had to travel to Indiana to get an abortion are a reason 19% of voters are ranking abortion as a leading concern heading into midterms. That figure is UP 9% from early June.
Mark my words: The overturning of Roe v. Wade will come and bite the GOP in the ass come midterms…
Now, I am not saying that Democrats will definitely win the House, but it is something to consider as the sky becomes clearer the closer we edge to November. This supposed “Red Wave” is not what it is being made out to be. It isn’t even necessarily “real.” If the Democrats happen to come out on top, President Biden would arguably oversee one of the most successful midterms for the party in power for decades.