What Happens if the Republicans Underperform come Midterms?
Think Piece/Open Discussion
Multiple analysts have indicated their certainty that the Democrats will lose seats in the midterms based on previous election cycle results. However, many opinions have changed due to events such as the overturning of Roe v. Wade which was done by a conservative-leaning Supreme Court. Republican support has met a subtle erosion, specifically in some generic congressional ballots to the point that Democrats are edging closer and closer to evening out the playing field.
With this, many have speculated what the potential consequences are if the Republican party fails to gain any ground during the midterms. Will there be a divide between the MAGA loyalists and those in leadership roles? Will the Republican dynamic regarding the Supreme Court change and would the Biden administration’s priorities be straightened out if they remain in control of both chambers?
Many people have said a similar event — one in which the GOP gains zero ground — will end in a “GOP Cold War” getting hot. President Biden is arguably the least popular president in the modern era as of now, according to polling. Donald Trump and Jimmy Carter both had better approval ratings at this point in their presidency.
Congress is being recognized as the Republican to take and if the Democrats hold on to Senate due to Trump-backed candidates such as Oz and Walker fumbling, then many people will have no choice but to openly oppose Trump and his loyalists. Any logical person knows doubling down on a strategy that loses is not the way to go. If Donald Trump continues to lose, even if it isn’t directly, people are going to begin to take notice.
Some Republicans may have to begin to moderate hard on social stances such as abortion and same-sex marriage. Maybe even starting now heading into the midterms. If Republicans fully embrace abortion bans or 6-week bans and fully embrace social conservatism as a whole, it will continue to make the political environment highly unfavorable for Republicans (relatively speaking).
Trump’s ideology and influence are already fading. Surprisingly, it is occurring faster than expected. In GOP primary polls (some) he is struggling to manage 50% of the voting. In some polls, Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor, is within single digits of Trump or even ahead of him. A decisive rejection of his endorsed candidates will accelerate the decline in popularity of Donald Trump. Another cycle may be needed, but chances are it will happen. It has happened time and time again in politics. If you just keep losing, the party as a whole will realize this and pivot in a new direction.