What if neither of the likely candidates for 2024 actually run in the 2024 presidential election? What if none of them get their respective party’s nomination? Biden would be the oldest man to ever be elected president and it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that he won’t be the Democratic candidate in 2024. On the flip side, Trump is as polarizing and literally as unpredictable as ever.
If Biden doesn’t run, it is most likely that Kamala Harris has the full opportunity, less strongly than Biden would have as the incumbent, to be the presumptive nominee. An extensive shift of optics for her to stand a shot would have to happen. The favorability of Kamala Harris has fallen but she would be very easy to beat in an election. Assuming no major changes to her image occurs, it would be a factor of someone breaking the barriers. Nobody will want to be the first to declare a political challenge with the sitting Vice President of their own party. Whenever somebody does, there are a lot of individuals who would be happy to follow.
If Biden doesn’t run, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a lot of close advisors who would discourage Kamala Harris from running. Once again, an open field gives more opportunity to capitalize on the excitement, and once again, Kamala Harris’ favorability is tough and the whole idea of a very hostile intraparty run will end ugly. If it is a competitive field, I’d expect a slate of candidates. We wouldn’t be surprised if Gavin Newsom made a bid. We wouldn’t be surprised if Beta O’Rouke made a bid. The same story occurs with Stacy Abrams, Pete Buttigieg, and even Klobuchar could try again.
On the Republican side, it is obvious that Ron DeSantis would run if Trump wouldn't. He is also. strong candidate because he goes without scrutiny among conservative circles but once challenged by his own party, I think he may fold. Ron DeSantis rings no bell of being charismatic. He’s not particularly sharp nor is he inspiring. He also has nothing to really offer that is groundbreaking.
Ron DeSantis literally takes OAN headlines and turns them into the “Bill of the Week” in Florida. For now, this is easy praise, however, it will become harder to do this and be successful when the GOP candidates are turning to him. The Republican side will be very competitive if Trump decided not to run.