Sarah Palin is currently campaigning for the Alaskan congressional seat after the death of Don Young in March. She has advanced to the general election which will be using ranked choice voting and will also be a stage in which she shared with three other people. The largest looming question is: What are her chances like?

She hasn’t been in the headlines since the 2008 election. One can argue that she’s still not super popular among the general public. However, one thing she does have going for her is that she is an avowed Trump supporter which aids in fitting the puzzle of the current Republican party. Her support to the MAGA crowd probably helps her among her base as well. In the 2008-09 run, Sarah Palin was relatively liked among the conservative members of the general population which actually bled into the 2010s.

Interviews and debates in 2008 showed that she had little knowledge of things such as foreign affairs. Furthermore, she was noticeably terrible with news media. As a rank-and-file member of Congress, things like foreign affairs aren’t dramatically as important as they are if you’re running as VP. Will this hurt her soon? Who knows. Generally speaking, she seems to have remained a polarizing figure and I know she was very popular in Alaska during the years she was in the headlines.

Back to the ranked choice, this will make it very interesting. Peltola and Palin are most likely the top two candidates going in. The idea is to think in terms of the ranking possibilities. How many Begich voters voted only Begich and didn’t rank Palin or Peltola? How many Begich voters want anyone but Palin and anyone by Peltola in as a choice? Sarah Palin seems to have some resentment towards her after leaving state-wide Alaskan politics for the bid as Vice President with John McCain. Her Donald Trump rhetoric may come back to bite her after the recent Mar-a-Lago raid.

What do you think the outlook for a Palin campaign is at this moment?