The Tories (the Conservative Party of the United Kingdom) managed to secure 365 seats in parliament in 2019. This was 56.1% and therefore the tories were able to have a large majority in the saying of the government. In the beginning, things pointed in the direction of the Labor Party being doomer for a long time. At one time in the Labor Party’s suspected doom, the Tories were polling at around 55% which could give them a ridiculous 500+ seats with the new 2023 proposed boundaries.

Success was also seen by the Tories since they received a 16% swing in a Hartlepool by-election in 2021 and gained a seat in the Labor Party held since the 70s. Unsuspectingly, the party gate scandal occurred and the tides have seemed to begin their shift. As time continued on, the partygate scandal only worsened. The Labor Party seemed to have been saved from impending doom as the citizens expressed ther anger towards the behavior and management of the Tories during Covid.

In December of 2021, the Tories lost some votes and the Lib Dems were able to make a swing of 35% and gain the constituency of North Shropshire by receing 47.2% of the votes. This lead to them beating the Tories as the party went from 62.7% in North Shropshire in 2019 to just 31.6% in that same election.

The Tories once again lost two by-elections, one in Wakefield and one in Tiverton and Honiton.

The future of the Tories doesn’t seem too promising however they have nearly three more years to gain voters back. The opinion polls show the Labor Party leading and some polls appear clearer than others. The Labor Party have a 55% chance of getting a Labor Majority and the Tories have a 7%, according to the Electoral Calculus forecast presented in June.

Bookmakers don’t see it as such and still by slight margin favors the Tories to become the bigger party again. There is very realistic chances that we will see both the Labor Party and the Tories end up below 300 some seats.

The main question is what happens when or if this happens?