Who could Primary Joe Biden in 2024?
Remember, this question isn’t who can win the presidency in 2024, but who can challenge Biden...
Throughout history, there have been very few serious primary challenges to an incumbent president:
1992: Commentator Pat Buchanan primaried President Bush Sr.
1980: Massachusetts senator Ted Kennedy primaried President Carter
1976: Former governor of California Ronald Reagan primaried President Ford
1948: Georgia Senator Richard Russell Jr. primaried President Truman
The candidates mentioned had no ties to the president in any way. They had their own profile and their own branding. Those mentioned also came from their parties’ base positioning themselves to the right and left of the seemingly weak incumbent.
Using these patterns, we can try to strategize that a primary challenge for Biden would come from someone with a massive national profile…
Has a national profile with fundraising abilities and a base that wouldn’t punish her for running against Biden. Has repeatedly criticized him. Young, but that can also be an asset vs a much older Biden.
Has raised his national profile by addressing abortion rights and gun control. As a governor, he isn’t tied to the current administration in any way.
Strong national profile, but not very popular. Isn't really tied to the administration. Coming in 3rd in Massachusetts in 2020 should be a deal breaker but you can't necessarily rule her out.
Smaller national profile than the other two, but still viable.
I don’t think that the party has any appetite for a conservative challenger like Joe Manchin or any of the red state governors(John Bel Edwards, Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Steve Bullock)
In the defense of Biden, I love the idea of “age and wisdom.” However, with age comes the loss of things such as memory. No knock on Biden as this is a natural happening, but it is becoming painful sometimes to see him fumble on speeches so terribly.
In a sense, it is unfortunate that we would never vote a younger person into office. For example, somebody like an AOC who can connect with the next generation but doesn’t have the socialist views as heavy. Instead of something like this, it ends up being the same stuffy old people who are VERY out of touch with everything…
Remember, this question isn’t who can win the presidency in 2024, but who can challenge Biden.