China has been conducting military drills very close to Taiwan and some citizens of the island have claimed they’re “terrifying.” Not only are the locals spooked, but the Chinese exercises are also restricting trading with Taiwan which leads to more problems. China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner — both import and export — accounting for nearly 26.3% of its total trade in 2020. Many have begun to ask if China will invade Taiwan as Russia did to Ukraine or if China would attempt to crash the Taiwan economy and overthrow the current government.

If the former case is the one that history will write out, will the United States intervene at all? Will they protect Taiwan or simply abandon the island in fear of sparking a World War 3?

One option is that neither happens. There are too many billions of Taiwanese money funding Chinese jobs. Also, not to mention, the top quality semiconductors come from Taiwan and China — even though they produce massive amounts themselves — actually depend quite a bit on those Taiwanese semiconductors. if China were to tank the Taiwan economy, then they would be shooting themselves in the foot. They’re also very much aware of this.

As for World War 3, no chance they’ll attempt. For a war with Taiwan? No chance they try that either. China isn’t stupid necessarily, they’re just overly ambitious to have Taiwan recognized as a “One China.” They also know how well Taiwan is currently defended. A seaborne assault would be required multiple times but good luck getting to the beaches without losing your military and if you go by land, good luck getting off of the beaches.

As per the United States military joining in if Taiwan is invaded, I think yes and no. Similar to the Ukrainian situation, the United States would just aid Taiwan by providing weaponry, intelligence, and direct fire. They’d also cut the air supply to the invading country by choking the economic system — finding the pressure point and pressing until it hurts, much like they did with Russia.

Many say they’re skeptical about the United States being able to arm Taiwan as they are with Ukraine due to the only route into Taiwan would be by ship. Also, many are skeptical of the idea that the United States can economically isolate China. The Chinese operations and business is so integrated into the global economy that it may not even be possible. How many countries would really sanction the country responsible for nearly 90% of their imports?