Will Democrats be Connected to Biden's Approval Rating or can they Outperform their Republican Counterparts?
Over the last thirty years, statistically speaking, there has been an ever-growing correlation between a president’s job approval and the results in midterm elections. When the public approves of the president’s job, the results for the party are either slight losses or even gains. Some of the most notable presidents having great popularity in the second and first midterms would be Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. When midterms came around, their parties added seats in the House.
In Bill Clinton’s first midterm, the Democratic party was hit hard and lost both chambers of Congress. For George W. Bush, the same story occurred but this time in the second midterm as well as negatives for the Republican party. Barack Obama and Donald Trump were also deemed “unfit” in their first midterms and took heavy hits.
Since Biden is also seemingly drowning at this point with his job approval sitting somewhere around 40% it is becoming more clear that the Democratic party will at least lose the house. However, it is still up to debate if the decision of the conservative Supreme Court will interfere with these predictions.
Undoubtedly, we are living in unusual times, and in this unusual midterm election, those who are anti-incumbent are becoming more motivated to turn out than the Democratic base. One of the main culprits for making this such an unusual midterm is the fact that the Republicans are “eating their own.” A lot of the MAGA kiss-asses genuinely believe a civil war is the only resolution to their grievances and we have already seen elections in New Mexico end with Republicans refusing to certify the results due to the assumption that the system is broken.
Bottom line is that the Republican turnout will be heavily influenced by:
Biden’s approval ratings
Republicans getting over the 2020 presidential loss
The lack of faith in American elections
Democratic turnout will be influenced by:
Anger over the legal gains the Republicans have made during the Biden term
Do you see any way out for the Democrats to win anything in November? Can candidate quality really matter in swing states? How would Republicans view this strong historical and statistical correlation?