As tensions continue to flare between the United States and Russia, as well as between the United States and China, it is becoming a worry to some that a full confrontation with one or both is inevitable. Multiple people have expressed their concern that we [The United States] may enter into another Cold War situation. However, does China rely too much on the United States for its own economy to ever get into such a direct conflict? Will China actually invade/attack Taiwan?

I personally don’t see us going into a direct war with either of them because there is no financial incentive. China puts on this facade of big ambitions to be the next global leader, but they know that’s a lie due to them dealing with the biggest demographic decline in human history. If trends continue as they are in China, that wish/goal won’t be possible.

Add to that the fact that the United States is not as concerned about being the world’s police state anymore. The economic incentives are waning and communism isn’t a threat as it used to be (or that it used to be classified as) to trade. The global order that has been experienced since 1945 is coming to an ultimate end. China won’t be able to thrive like it used to because it’s the number one import country. Without the United States guaranteeing safe passage and trading, China would be dealing with shortages and regional wars.

Russia, on the other hand, is also dealing with a major demographic decline, one that is at a much slower pace than China. However, Russia is still exporting enough to stay afloat. Vladimir Putin seems like he’s gone off the deep end, but really as tragic as Ukraine is, he’s doing a very intelligent and rational thing. If they [Russia] doesn’t consolidate the control in key areas around Central Europe, Russia will end up in a very precarious situation in the future which will end up being awfully similar to China.

This is most likely why Vladimir Putin and Russia are acting today so that they can at least remain a country (regardless of their power) for the next 30 years. There are no ambitions that make sense to take over “all of Europe.” It seems that Russia just wants key areas, which unfortunately are in several countries, but the likely outcome will be war and establishing proxy regimes. Russia is also a nuclear power, so the United States will be aggressive towards Russia but won’t go into direct war with them because their ambitions don’t affect our economy in the long run and it also isn’t an existential crisis for the United States.

Are these situations affecting us now? Yes, of course. But it isn’t affecting us to the existential degree people are making it out to be and it isn’t affecting us long-term. Due to this, there is no reason anybody should believe we will be going to direct war with either of them…